Brexit has damaged UK economic growth by as much as Covid or the energy crisis caused by President Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, the head of the government’s economic watchdog has warned.Richard Hughes, the chairman of the Office for Budget Responsibility, said Britain’s departure from the European Union had reduced economic output by around 4 per cent compared to if the UK had remained in the bloc.
He added that this was a contributing factor to the "biggest squeeze on living standards" that the country had ever faced with household incomes unlikely to return to pre-pandemic levels until the late 2020s.
Speaking to the BBC’s Sunday With Laura Kuenssberg programme, Hughes was asked to quantify the 4 per cent drop in UK economic output that the OBR has attributed to Brexit.
"All major advanced economies experienced a collapse in trade during the pandemic, but the latest ONS data suggest that UK trade volumes remain 3.0 per cent below their 2019 level in the third quarter of 2022, versus an average increase across other G7 countries of 5.5 per cent," the OBR said.
On investment the watchdog said that greater uncertainty from the result of the referendum would see some investment projects postponed or cancelled. It has suggested this would reduce productivity by 1.5 per cent but would fade as uncertainty over the future trading relationship receded and investment recovered.
"I think we’re seeing clearly the biggest squeeze on living standards we’ve faced in this country on record," he said.
"We do expect, as we get past this year and we go into the next three or four years, that real income starts to recover.
"But it’s still the case that people’s real spending power doesn’t get back to the level it was before the pandemic even after five years, even by the time we get to the late 2020’s.
I think almost everyone in the UK feels the effects of Brexit. Whether they've voted for or against it, the feeling that things are not well is there. I wish we'd have had a bigger, longer discussion about this before taking it to a vote…
ReplyDeleteBrexit has brought a lot of uncertainty which leads to anxious investors, less investments, canceled projects and so on. It was all done with haste and it will haunt us for at least 10 years if not more. We need to attract investors, give them clear reasons to build companies in the UK.
ReplyDeleteThis triple combo of Covid, Brexit and the invasion of Ukraine has created so many issues for the UK. It's hard to pinpoint why some things are going badly and in other areas, it's clear where Brexit is to blame. We are once again shown what haste can do. Hastily deciding such an important issue, without having time to consider its many consequences, leads to serious problems as we can all see.
Delete