The US oil group’s earnings have highlighted the windfall for Big Oil from Russia’s war in Ukraine despite a fourth-
quarter slowing of prices. Even though the fourth quarter was among the company’s most profitable ever recorded, it was down sharply from the record-breaking $19.7bn earned in the third quarter, a sign that Big Oil’s earnings surge has decelerated in recent months as oil and gas prices have fallen from near-record levels last summer. Yet Darren Woods, Exxon chief executive, warned that global oil and gas supplies were likely to remain tight because industry output is not «covering the growth» of resurgent demand. Supplies would be constrained in part because «some of our competitors have stepped back their investment », he said without identifying the competitors.
Some Exxon peers such as BP, Shell and TotalEnergies have said they plan to pull back their fossil fuel investments in response to concerns over climate change. Woods said Exxon «benefited from a favourable market» but had also «bucked conventional wisdom» by continuing to invest during the pandemic, which helped deliver «industry-leading operating and financial results and shareholder returns in 2022». Chevron, Exxon’s leading US rival, reported its own record earnings for 2022 of $35.5bn on Friday, putting the American oil titans’ combined earnings for last year at an all-time high of more than $91bn, eclipsing the previous peak of $71bn in 2012. Oil prices have rallied in the past month over investor expectations that China’s economic reopening will accelerate crude demand growth while sanctions on Russia weigh on global supplies.
Brent crude was trading at $84.54 a barrel yesterday afternoon, having fallen to about $75 in December. In the US, ExxonMobil and Chevron collectively made more than $91bn in net income. Profit growth was already starting to decelerate in the fourth quarter. Earnings are expected to fall this year and next.
Exxon stock hit a new high last week after climbing some 160 per cent over two years. Chevron is also trading near the record highs set in November. Exxon has a contrarian reason for sticking with its oil and gas business. It believes the world will consume more crude in 2050 than today.
That stands in contrast to BP, which is projecting a 25 per cent drop in demand by 2050. Despite the big run up in share prices, the energy sector still accounts for just 5 per cent of the S&P 500. A decade ago, it was more than 11 per cent.
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