Economists say that the UK will face one of the worst recessions and weakest recoveries in the G7 this year as households pay a heavy price for the government’s policy failings. A clear majority of the 101 respondents in the Financial Times annual poll of leading UK-based economists said the inflationary shock caused by the pandemic and the Ukraine war would persist for longer in the UK than elsewhere, forcing the Bank of England to keep interest rates high and the government to run a tight fiscal policy. More than four-fifths of the economists surveyed expected the UK to lag behind its peers, with gross domestic product already shrinking and set to do so for 2023. The result is expected to be an intensifying squeeze on households, as higher borrowing costs add to the pain of high food and energy prices.
The 2023 recession will feel much worse than the economic impact of the pandemic said John Philpott, an independent labour market economist. «The combination of falling real wages, tight financial conditions and a housing market correction is as bad as it gets,» said Kallum Pickering, senior economist at Berenberg bank.
The Ukraine war will greatly affect the UK for at least 2-3 more years. And it depends on how this war will end (and if it will end)
ReplyDeleteThe UK will lag behind for a while. 2023 won't be any better than last year. It will only get worse before it starts getting better.
ReplyDelete