Skip to main content

Tighter Monetary policy for ECB

The chief executive of Germany’s most prominent bank, Deutsche Bank, has called on central bankers to tighten monetary policy to provide “countermeasures” against surging inflation. However, he warned it was producing risky side effects and would last longer than policymakers expected. 

Speaking at a conference in Frankfurt yesterday, he added: “The consequences of this ultra-loose monetary policy will become increasingly difficult to fix the longer central banks fail to take countermeasures.” 

Deutsche Bank head Christian Sewing said: “The supposed cure-all of the past years — low-interest rates with seemingly stable prices — has lost its effect, now we are struggling with the side effects. The $27tn rise in global government, corporate and household debt to $226tn last year, based on IMF figures, was “simply unsustainable in the long term and a constant potential trouble spot for the global financial markets”, Sewing warned. “But this, in turn, has considerable risks and side effects: inflation is on the rise around the world faster than any economist would have anticipated a year ago.” 

While many central banks are ending asset purchases and raising rates, the ECB is expected to continue buying bonds for at least another year and has insisted a rate rise is a distant prospect. “The ultra-loose spending policies of many governments are only made possible by an equally generous monetary policy that drastically intervenes in pricing on the bond market. 

 Sewing is a longstanding critic of the European Central Bank’s use of negative interest rates to stimulate the economy. His comments reflect the aversion of many German banks to negative interest rates, which they argue have eroded their profit margins.

Comments

Cloud Bookkeeping

US FED rate rise.

  The US Federal Reserve officials have indicated that they plan to resume increasing interest rates to control inflation in the world's biggest economy. During the June meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee reached a consensus to keep interest rates stable for the time being to evaluate whether further tightening of policy would be necessary. However, the majority of the committee anticipates that additional rate increases will be required in the future. The minutes of the meeting have recently been made public. According to the minutes, most participants believed maintaining the federal funds rate at 5 to 5.25 per cent was appropriate or acceptable, despite some individuals wanting to raise the acceleration due to slow progress in cooling inflation. Although Fed forecasts predicted a mild recession starting later in the year, policymakers faced challenges in interpreting data that showed a tight job market and only slight improvements in inflation. Additionally, officials gr...

EU business slide.

  S&P Global’s flash eurozone composite purchasing managers’ index, a key gauge of business conditions for the manufacturing and services sector, fell 1 point to 47.1, figures showed yesterday. That is its lowest level since November 2020 and the fourth consecutive month below the crucial 50 mark separating growth from contraction. One of the few bright spots in the survey was that companies in all sectors reported a slight easing of cost pressures, price growth and supply chain constraints. However, prices charged for goods and services still rose at the sixth fastest rate since such data started in 2002. Jobs growth increased marginally from October but remained low compared with the past 18 months. Following a few months of falling price pressure in manufacturing and services, the October print shows an overall stabilisation said Jens Eisenschmidt, chief European economist at Morgan Stanley. However, German businesses, at the hub of Europe’s energy crisis, reported that manu...

India- UK trade deal.

  According to India's top trade official, talks with the UK regarding a trade agreement are progressing well, despite obstacles related to temporary work visas and the opening up industries like automotive and spirits. The Commerce and Industry Minister, Piyush Goyal, explained that India is seeking transition periods or greater market access in specific sectors due to its economy, which is slightly larger than the UK's and expected to outgrow it in the coming decades. If a trade deal is reached, it would be one of the most significant agreements for Britain since leaving the EU, and it would also be necessary for India, which surpassed the UK as the fifth-largest economy last year. Goyal stated that India aims to increase its economy from $3.5tn to $35tn by 2047, the country's centenary of independence. According to officials and diplomats in India, talks about a proposed trade deal may be finished by early September, just in time for the G20 summit in New Delhi. Nigel Hu...